Description: This paper explores how health care complexity challenges us to expand our repertoire of actuarial methods—and even recast our trend driver paradigm—in order to do our jobs better and maintain our credibility.

Description: In this continuation of our July 2013 article we explore an algorithm for evaluating Hidden Markov Models in detail. A preferred method in speech recognition technology, Hidden Markov Models are a promising technique when dealing with data you suspect may be driven by a change in a unobservable state. The example in the article is provided in an Excel workbook for the reader to follow along with.

Description: Deep learning is a method that allows neural networks to be constructed with more than just one or two hidden layers. These layers can then be trained independently and simultaneously of each other. This article provides an introduction to deep belief neural networks.

Description: The article introduces the concept of overfitting in predictive modeling and illustrates how it hinders our ability to predict new data well.

Description: Feature article discussing the ways artificial intelligence will influence the actuarial field.

Description: This article discusses steps to follow to ensure a more rational and productive approach to data analysis.

Description: Each month in the media we learn of another set of jobs being automated into oblivion or replaced by disruptive technologies. We see taxi drivers replaced by Uber and Lyft now, and soon by self-driving cars. An Oxford University study of 702 occupations showed insurance underwriters in 698th place, with a 99% probability of computerization. They were safer for obsolescence by automation than only four occupations such as hand sewers and telemarketers.

Description: Anders discusses how skills in PA techniques don't have to become the focal point for all actuaries, but they can be another tool in the toolbox for all of us.

Description: The new chairperson of the SOA's PAF section, Anders Larson, discusses the variety of ways in which the section helps actuaries learn about PAF.

Description: In 2007, members of the Forecasting & Futurism Section were joined by members of the Technology Section and the Marketing & Distribution Sections to conduct a Delphi study about possible developments in the life insurance industry. It was named it “Blue Ocean Strategies in Technology for Business Acquisition by the Life Insurance Industry.” The goal was to have a panel of experts—actuaries and other financial professionals from across the country—identify and debate possible new approaches to acquiring business by life insurers. Panelists were asked to answer questions about possible “Blue Ocean Strategies.” This article highlights the ideas that resulted from those discussions as well as survey results on the same subject.